TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Knob Noster with Leeton | Carrollton |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-4 | 4-0 |
| PF / GAME | 14.0 | 36.9 |
| PA / GAME | 43.4 | 11.5 |
| AVG MARGIN | -35.0 | +34.2 |
| SOS | +0.9 | -13.5 |
| POWER | -34.7 | +29.5 |
CARROLLTON WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Carrollton finished the job, as Knob Noster with Leeton and Carrollton finished 0-46. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 6-47 final.
The actual margin was 46 points versus MOFO's 40.9-point projection. That produced a 5.1-point margin error, with score errors of 6.0 for Knob Noster with Leeton and 0.9 for Carrollton.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD CARROLLTON
MOFO leans toward Carrollton because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 64.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 40.9-point margin, with Carrollton carrying a 95% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Carrollton enters at 36.9 points per game compared with 14.0 for Knob Noster with Leeton. Carrollton also allows 31.9 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -13.5 for Carrollton and +0.9 for Knob Noster with Leeton. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Carrollton owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Knob Noster with Leeton has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 64.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.