TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Branson | Carl Junction |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| PF / GAME | 34.5 | 28.4 |
| PA / GAME | 23.0 | 24.2 |
| AVG MARGIN | +19.2 | +3.8 |
| SOS | +4.9 | +9.2 |
| POWER | +20.9 | +7.0 |
BRANSON WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Branson finished the job, as Branson and Carl Junction finished 14-7. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 31-24 final.
The actual margin was 7 points versus MOFO's 7.2-point projection. That produced a 0.2-point margin error, with score errors of 17.1 for Branson and 16.9 for Carl Junction.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD BRANSON
MOFO leans toward Branson because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 13.9-point power-rating advantage and projects a 7.2-point margin, with Branson carrying a 72% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Branson enters at 34.5 points per game compared with 28.4 for Carl Junction. Branson also allows 1.2 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +4.9 for Branson and +9.2 for Carl Junction. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Branson owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Carl Junction has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 13.9-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.