TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Jefferson City | Capital City |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| PF / GAME | 29.4 | 23.7 |
| PA / GAME | 36.0 | 29.7 |
| AVG MARGIN | -11.3 | -7.3 |
| SOS | +0.3 | +5.4 |
| POWER | -11.2 | -5.4 |
JEFFERSON CITY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Jefferson City finished the job, as Jefferson City and Capital City finished 35-28. MOFO's pick of Capital City missed; the model had projected a 29-31 final.
The actual margin was 7 points versus MOFO's 2.3-point projection. That produced a 9.3-point margin error, with score errors of 6.5 for Jefferson City and 2.8 for Capital City.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD CAPITAL CITY
MOFO leans toward Capital City because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 5.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 2.3-point margin, with Capital City carrying a 58% win probability.
Jefferson City actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Capital City also allows 6.3 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +5.4 for Capital City and +0.3 for Jefferson City. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Jefferson City owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Capital City has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 5.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.