TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Blair Oaks | California |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| PF / GAME | 35.7 | 24.7 |
| PA / GAME | 23.2 | 33.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | +17.5 | -12.5 |
| SOS | +2.2 | +8.5 |
| POWER | +18.2 | -9.5 |
BLAIR OAKS WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Blair Oaks finished the job, as Blair Oaks and California finished 55-7. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 38-21 final.
The actual margin was 48 points versus MOFO's 16.8-point projection. That produced a 31.2-point margin error, with score errors of 17.2 for Blair Oaks and 13.9 for California.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD BLAIR OAKS
MOFO leans toward Blair Oaks because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 27.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 16.8-point margin, with Blair Oaks carrying a 90% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Blair Oaks enters at 35.7 points per game compared with 24.7 for California. Blair Oaks also allows 10.7 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +2.2 for Blair Oaks and +8.5 for California. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Blair Oaks owns the stronger scoring profile.
02California has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 27.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.