TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Mountain Grove | Cabool |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| PF / GAME | 28.2 | 14.7 |
| PA / GAME | 20.4 | 40.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | +9.6 | -24.3 |
| SOS | +2.0 | +1.5 |
| POWER | +10.3 | -23.8 |
MOUNTAIN GROVE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Mountain Grove finished the job, as Mountain Grove and Cabool finished 68-6. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 38-14 final.
The actual margin was 62 points versus MOFO's 24.2-point projection. That produced a 37.8-point margin error, with score errors of 30.1 for Mountain Grove and 7.7 for Cabool.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD MOUNTAIN GROVE
MOFO leans toward Mountain Grove because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 34.1-point power-rating advantage and projects a 24.2-point margin, with Mountain Grove carrying a 95% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Mountain Grove enters at 28.2 points per game compared with 14.7 for Cabool. Mountain Grove also allows 19.6 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +2.0 for Mountain Grove and +1.5 for Cabool. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Mountain Grove owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Mountain Grove has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 34.1-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.