TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Butler | Windsor |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| PF / GAME | 28.8 | 19.8 |
| PA / GAME | 28.8 | 16.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | +0.0 | +5.3 |
| SOS | -6.3 | -5.9 |
| POWER | -2.2 | +3.3 |
BUTLER WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Butler finished the job, as Butler and Windsor finished 54-30. MOFO's pick of Windsor missed; the model had projected a 22-25 final.
The actual margin was 24 points versus MOFO's 2.8-point projection. That produced a 26.8-point margin error, with score errors of 31.9 for Butler and 5.1 for Windsor.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD WINDSOR
MOFO leans toward Windsor because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 5.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 2.8-point margin, with Windsor carrying a 59% win probability.
Butler actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Windsor also allows 12.2 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -5.9 for Windsor and -6.3 for Butler. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Butler owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Windsor has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 5.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.