TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Kickapoo | Willard |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| PF / GAME | 16.2 | 23.0 |
| PA / GAME | 35.4 | 38.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | -24.7 | -19.0 |
| SOS | +6.2 | -7.7 |
| POWER | -22.5 | -21.7 |
KICKAPOO WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Kickapoo finished the job, as Kickapoo and Willard finished 21-7. MOFO's pick of Willard missed; the model had projected a 28-29 final.
The actual margin was 14 points versus MOFO's 1.5-point projection. That produced a 15.5-point margin error, with score errors of 6.5 for Kickapoo and 22.0 for Willard.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD WILLARD
MOFO leans toward Willard because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 0.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 1.5-point margin, with Willard carrying a 55% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Willard enters at 23.0 points per game compared with 16.2 for Kickapoo. Kickapoo's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -7.7 for Willard and +6.2 for Kickapoo. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Willard owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Kickapoo has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 0.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.