TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | North Shelby | Wellington-Napoleon |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-0 | 2-1 |
| PF / GAME | 50.6 | 40.2 |
| PA / GAME | 15.4 | 32.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | +35.0 | +12.7 |
| SOS | -17.2 | -4.7 |
| POWER | +29.0 | +11.0 |
NORTH SHELBY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
North Shelby finished the job, as North Shelby and Wellington-Napoleon finished 50-0. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 43-26 final.
The actual margin was 50 points versus MOFO's 17.3-point projection. That produced a 32.7-point margin error, with score errors of 6.7 for North Shelby and 26.0 for Wellington-Napoleon.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD NORTH SHELBY
MOFO leans toward North Shelby because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 18.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 17.3-point margin, with North Shelby carrying a 91% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: North Shelby enters at 50.6 points per game compared with 40.2 for Wellington-Napoleon. North Shelby also allows 17.2 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -17.2 for North Shelby and -4.7 for Wellington-Napoleon. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01North Shelby owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Wellington-Napoleon has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 18.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.