TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Nixa | Webb City |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-0 | 3-0 |
| PF / GAME | 35.2 | 36.0 |
| PA / GAME | 20.2 | 19.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | +22.3 | +24.3 |
| SOS | +6.2 | -7.7 |
| POWER | +24.5 | +21.7 |
WEBB CITY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Webb City finished the job, as Nixa and Webb City finished 21-23. MOFO's pick of Nixa missed; the model had projected a 28-28 final.
The actual margin was 2 points versus MOFO's 0.4-point projection. That produced a 2.4-point margin error, with score errors of 6.9 for Nixa and 4.5 for Webb City.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD NIXA
MOFO leans toward Nixa because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 2.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 0.4-point margin, with Nixa carrying a 51% win probability.
Webb City actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Webb City's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +6.2 for Nixa and -7.7 for Webb City. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Webb City owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Nixa has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 2.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.