FT. ZUMWALT SOUTH WRITES THE FINAL WORD

Ft. Zumwalt South finished the job, as Ft. Zumwalt South and Washington finished 28-26. MOFO's pick of Washington missed; the model had projected a 21-28 final.

The actual margin was 2 points versus MOFO's 6.4-point projection. That produced a 8.4-point margin error, with score errors of 6.8 for Ft. Zumwalt South and 1.6 for Washington.

THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD WASHINGTON

MOFO leans toward Washington because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 13.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 6.4-point margin, with Washington carrying a 70% win probability.

The clearest separator is scoring: Washington enters at 22.2 points per game compared with 20.4 for Ft. Zumwalt South. Washington also allows 4.8 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.

Strength of schedule checks in at +8.5 for Washington and +1.6 for Ft. Zumwalt South. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.