TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | St. Charles West | Warrenton |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-0 | 2-1 |
| PF / GAME | 35.8 | 23.8 |
| PA / GAME | 18.0 | 21.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | +24.3 | +4.0 |
| SOS | -19.0 | -8.9 |
| POWER | +17.7 | +0.9 |
ST. CHARLES WEST WRITES THE FINAL WORD
St. Charles West finished the job, as St. Charles West and Warrenton finished 17-0. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 30-19 final.
The actual margin was 17 points versus MOFO's 11.0-point projection. That produced a 6.0-point margin error, with score errors of 13.2 for St. Charles West and 19.2 for Warrenton.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD ST. CHARLES WEST
MOFO leans toward St. Charles West because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 16.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 11.0-point margin, with St. Charles West carrying a 81% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: St. Charles West enters at 35.8 points per game compared with 23.8 for Warrenton. St. Charles West also allows 3.4 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -19.0 for St. Charles West and -8.9 for Warrenton. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01St. Charles West owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Warrenton has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 16.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.