TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Lincoln College Prep | Van Horn |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| PF / GAME | 15.8 | 25.8 |
| PA / GAME | 19.4 | 24.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | -6.0 | -1.3 |
| SOS | -4.3 | -9.8 |
| POWER | -7.5 | -4.8 |
VAN HORN WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Van Horn finished the job, as Lincoln College Prep and Van Horn finished 17-21. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 20-23 final.
The actual margin was 4 points versus MOFO's 2.7-point projection. That produced a 1.3-point margin error, with score errors of 3.1 for Lincoln College Prep and 1.8 for Van Horn.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD VAN HORN
MOFO leans toward Van Horn because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 2.7-point power-rating advantage and projects a 2.7-point margin, with Van Horn carrying a 59% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Van Horn enters at 25.8 points per game compared with 15.8 for Lincoln College Prep. Lincoln College Prep's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -9.8 for Van Horn and -4.3 for Lincoln College Prep. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Van Horn owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Lincoln College Prep has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 2.7-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.