TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Salem | Thayer |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| PF / GAME | 24.0 | 25.4 |
| PA / GAME | 22.6 | 29.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | +2.3 | -6.3 |
| SOS | -8.8 | +9.7 |
| POWER | -0.7 | -2.9 |
THAYER WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Thayer finished the job, as Salem and Thayer finished 26-61. MOFO's pick of Salem missed; the model had projected a 27-24 final.
The actual margin was 35 points versus MOFO's 2.6-point projection. That produced a 37.6-point margin error, with score errors of 0.7 for Salem and 36.9 for Thayer.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SALEM
MOFO leans toward Salem because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 2.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 2.6-point margin, with Salem carrying a 59% win probability.
Thayer actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Salem also allows 7.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -8.8 for Salem and +9.7 for Thayer. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Thayer owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Thayer has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 2.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.