TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | South Holt | Tarkio |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| PF / GAME | 34.6 | 21.8 |
| PA / GAME | 51.8 | 43.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | -23.0 | -26.7 |
| SOS | +13.8 | +7.9 |
| POWER | -18.2 | -23.9 |
TARKIO WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Tarkio finished the job, as South Holt and Tarkio finished 14-26. MOFO's pick of South Holt missed; the model had projected a 40-36 final.
The actual margin was 12 points versus MOFO's 3.7-point projection. That produced a 15.7-point margin error, with score errors of 25.7 for South Holt and 10.0 for Tarkio.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SOUTH HOLT
MOFO leans toward South Holt because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 5.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 3.7-point margin, with South Holt carrying a 62% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: South Holt enters at 34.6 points per game compared with 21.8 for Tarkio. Tarkio's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +13.8 for South Holt and +7.9 for Tarkio. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01South Holt owns the stronger scoring profile.
02South Holt has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 5.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.