TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Northwest (Hughesville) | Sweet Springs |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| PF / GAME | 34.6 | 42.6 |
| PA / GAME | 33.2 | 35.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | +2.3 | +11.3 |
| SOS | +1.9 | -2.0 |
| POWER | +3.0 | +10.6 |
NORTHWEST (HUGHESVILLE) WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Northwest (Hughesville) finished the job, as Northwest (Hughesville) and Sweet Springs finished 64-38. MOFO's pick of Sweet Springs missed; the model had projected a 34-39 final.
The actual margin was 26 points versus MOFO's 4.2-point projection. That produced a 30.2-point margin error, with score errors of 29.6 for Northwest (Hughesville) and 0.6 for Sweet Springs.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SWEET SPRINGS
MOFO leans toward Sweet Springs because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 7.6-point power-rating advantage and projects a 4.2-point margin, with Sweet Springs carrying a 64% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Sweet Springs enters at 42.6 points per game compared with 34.6 for Northwest (Hughesville). Northwest (Hughesville)'s defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -2.0 for Sweet Springs and +1.9 for Northwest (Hughesville). Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Sweet Springs owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Northwest (Hughesville) has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 7.6-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.