TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Father Tolton | Summit Christian Academy |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| PF / GAME | 34.4 | 30.2 |
| PA / GAME | 26.8 | 22.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | +12.7 | +12.3 |
| SOS | +0.8 | -3.0 |
| POWER | +12.9 | +11.3 |
SUMMIT CHRISTIAN ACADEMY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Summit Christian Academy finished the job, as Father Tolton and Summit Christian Academy finished 19-21. MOFO's pick of Father Tolton missed; the model had projected a 29-28 final.
The actual margin was 2 points versus MOFO's 0.6-point projection. That produced a 2.6-point margin error, with score errors of 9.8 for Father Tolton and 7.2 for Summit Christian Academy.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD FATHER TOLTON
MOFO leans toward Father Tolton because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 1.6-point power-rating advantage and projects a 0.6-point margin, with Father Tolton carrying a 52% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Father Tolton enters at 34.4 points per game compared with 30.2 for Summit Christian Academy. Summit Christian Academy's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +0.8 for Father Tolton and -3.0 for Summit Christian Academy. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Father Tolton owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Father Tolton has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 1.6-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.