TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Marionville | Stockton with Sheldon |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| PF / GAME | 21.4 | 21.8 |
| PA / GAME | 26.8 | 22.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | -9.0 | -2.0 |
| SOS | +11.7 | +6.9 |
| POWER | -4.9 | +0.4 |
MARIONVILLE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Marionville finished the job, as Marionville and Stockton with Sheldon finished 30-14. MOFO's pick of Stockton with Sheldon missed; the model had projected a 22-25 final.
The actual margin was 16 points versus MOFO's 3.2-point projection. That produced a 19.2-point margin error, with score errors of 8.4 for Marionville and 10.8 for Stockton with Sheldon.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD STOCKTON WITH SHELDON
MOFO leans toward Stockton with Sheldon because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 5.3-point power-rating advantage and projects a 3.2-point margin, with Stockton with Sheldon carrying a 61% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Stockton with Sheldon enters at 21.8 points per game compared with 21.4 for Marionville. Stockton with Sheldon also allows 4.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +6.9 for Stockton with Sheldon and +11.7 for Marionville. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Stockton with Sheldon owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Marionville has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 5.3-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.