TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Potosi | Ste. Genevieve |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| PF / GAME | 27.8 | 30.0 |
| PA / GAME | 20.6 | 20.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | +12.0 | +8.7 |
| SOS | -2.1 | -4.1 |
| POWER | +11.3 | +7.2 |
STE. GENEVIEVE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Ste. Genevieve finished the job, as Potosi and Ste. Genevieve finished 21-29. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 25-25 final.
The actual margin was 8 points versus MOFO's 0.0-point projection. That produced a 8.0-point margin error, with score errors of 3.8 for Potosi and 4.2 for Ste. Genevieve.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD STE. GENEVIEVE
MOFO leans toward Ste. Genevieve because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 4.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 0.0-point margin, with Ste. Genevieve carrying a 50% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Ste. Genevieve enters at 30.0 points per game compared with 27.8 for Potosi. Potosi's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -4.1 for Ste. Genevieve and -2.1 for Potosi. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Ste. Genevieve owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Potosi has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 4.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.