TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | King City | Stanberry |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-2 | 3-0 |
| PF / GAME | 37.4 | 52.0 |
| PA / GAME | 30.6 | 34.2 |
| AVG MARGIN | +8.3 | +27.7 |
| SOS | -10.8 | -6.5 |
| POWER | +4.5 | +25.4 |
STANBERRY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Stanberry finished the job, as King City and Stanberry finished 50-55. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 33-44 final.
The actual margin was 5 points versus MOFO's 10.2-point projection. That produced a 5.2-point margin error, with score errors of 16.6 for King City and 11.4 for Stanberry.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD STANBERRY
MOFO leans toward Stanberry because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 20.9-point power-rating advantage and projects a 10.2-point margin, with Stanberry carrying a 80% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Stanberry enters at 52.0 points per game compared with 37.4 for King City. King City's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -6.5 for Stanberry and -10.8 for King City. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Stanberry owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Stanberry has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 20.9-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.