TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Herculaneum | St. Vincent |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-2 | 3-0 |
| PF / GAME | 23.6 | 29.0 |
| PA / GAME | 23.0 | 12.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | -1.3 | +25.3 |
| SOS | -7.4 | -0.6 |
| POWER | -3.9 | +25.1 |
ST. VINCENT WRITES THE FINAL WORD
St. Vincent finished the job, as Herculaneum and St. Vincent finished 7-42. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 15-29 final.
The actual margin was 35 points versus MOFO's 14.6-point projection. That produced a 20.4-point margin error, with score errors of 7.7 for Herculaneum and 12.7 for St. Vincent.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD ST. VINCENT
MOFO leans toward St. Vincent because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 29.1-point power-rating advantage and projects a 14.6-point margin, with St. Vincent carrying a 88% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: St. Vincent enters at 29.0 points per game compared with 23.6 for Herculaneum. St. Vincent also allows 10.6 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -0.6 for St. Vincent and -7.4 for Herculaneum. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01St. Vincent owns the stronger scoring profile.
02St. Vincent has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 29.1-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.