TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Central (Park Hills) | St. Pius X (Festus) |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| PF / GAME | 19.2 | 45.0 |
| PA / GAME | 30.0 | 20.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | -13.3 | +18.0 |
| SOS | +9.2 | -7.4 |
| POWER | -10.1 | +15.4 |
ST. PIUS X (FESTUS) WRITES THE FINAL WORD
St. Pius X (Festus) finished the job, as Central (Park Hills) and St. Pius X (Festus) finished 0-54. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 17-40 final.
The actual margin was 54 points versus MOFO's 22.9-point projection. That produced a 31.1-point margin error, with score errors of 17.1 for Central (Park Hills) and 14.0 for St. Pius X (Festus).
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD ST. PIUS X (FESTUS)
MOFO leans toward St. Pius X (Festus) because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 25.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 22.9-point margin, with St. Pius X (Festus) carrying a 95% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: St. Pius X (Festus) enters at 45.0 points per game compared with 19.2 for Central (Park Hills). St. Pius X (Festus) also allows 10.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -7.4 for St. Pius X (Festus) and +9.2 for Central (Park Hills). Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01St. Pius X (Festus) owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Central (Park Hills) has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 25.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.