TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Albany | St. Joseph Christian |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| PF / GAME | 37.8 | 33.4 |
| PA / GAME | 27.4 | 39.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | +9.0 | -10.0 |
| SOS | -0.9 | +9.0 |
| POWER | +8.7 | -6.8 |
ST. JOSEPH CHRISTIAN WRITES THE FINAL WORD
St. Joseph Christian finished the job, as Albany and St. Joseph Christian finished 14-50. MOFO's pick of Albany missed; the model had projected a 40-29 final.
The actual margin was 36 points versus MOFO's 11.1-point projection. That produced a 47.1-point margin error, with score errors of 25.9 for Albany and 21.2 for St. Joseph Christian.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD ALBANY
MOFO leans toward Albany because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 15.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 11.1-point margin, with Albany carrying a 81% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Albany enters at 37.8 points per game compared with 33.4 for St. Joseph Christian. Albany also allows 11.6 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -0.9 for Albany and +9.0 for St. Joseph Christian. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Albany owns the stronger scoring profile.
02St. Joseph Christian has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 15.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.