TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | St. Clair | St. James |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| PF / GAME | 26.0 | 21.6 |
| PA / GAME | 24.2 | 25.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | +3.0 | -4.7 |
| SOS | +2.9 | +7.0 |
| POWER | +4.0 | -2.2 |
ST. CLAIR WRITES THE FINAL WORD
St. Clair finished the job, as St. Clair and St. James finished 34-0. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 26-22 final.
The actual margin was 34 points versus MOFO's 4.1-point projection. That produced a 29.9-point margin error, with score errors of 7.6 for St. Clair and 22.3 for St. James.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD ST. CLAIR
MOFO leans toward St. Clair because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 6.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 4.1-point margin, with St. Clair carrying a 63% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: St. Clair enters at 26.0 points per game compared with 21.6 for St. James. St. Clair also allows 1.4 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +2.9 for St. Clair and +7.0 for St. James. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01St. Clair owns the stronger scoring profile.
02St. James has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 6.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.