TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Rolla | St. Francis Borgia |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-3 | 3-0 |
| PF / GAME | 23.2 | 34.4 |
| PA / GAME | 39.6 | 18.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | -27.3 | +22.7 |
| SOS | +12.7 | -12.5 |
| POWER | -22.9 | +18.3 |
ROLLA WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Rolla finished the job, as Rolla and St. Francis Borgia finished 47-13. MOFO's pick of St. Francis Borgia missed; the model had projected a 16-41 final.
The actual margin was 34 points versus MOFO's 24.6-point projection. That produced a 58.6-point margin error, with score errors of 30.5 for Rolla and 28.1 for St. Francis Borgia.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD ST. FRANCIS BORGIA
MOFO leans toward St. Francis Borgia because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 41.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 24.6-point margin, with St. Francis Borgia carrying a 95% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: St. Francis Borgia enters at 34.4 points per game compared with 23.2 for Rolla. St. Francis Borgia also allows 21.6 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -12.5 for St. Francis Borgia and +12.7 for Rolla. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01St. Francis Borgia owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Rolla has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 41.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.