TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | SLUH | St. Dominic |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| PF / GAME | 25.6 | 24.8 |
| PA / GAME | 18.2 | 24.2 |
| AVG MARGIN | +10.3 | +1.0 |
| SOS | -3.3 | +0.7 |
| POWER | +9.2 | +1.3 |
SLUH WRITES THE FINAL WORD
SLUH finished the job, as SLUH and St. Dominic finished 33-3. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 26-21 final.
The actual margin was 30 points versus MOFO's 5.0-point projection. That produced a 25.0-point margin error, with score errors of 7.3 for SLUH and 17.7 for St. Dominic.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SLUH
MOFO leans toward SLUH because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 7.9-point power-rating advantage and projects a 5.0-point margin, with SLUH carrying a 66% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: SLUH enters at 25.6 points per game compared with 24.8 for St. Dominic. SLUH also allows 6.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -3.3 for SLUH and +0.7 for St. Dominic. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01SLUH owns the stronger scoring profile.
02St. Dominic has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 7.9-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.