TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | California | Southern Boone |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| PF / GAME | 25.6 | 27.6 |
| PA / GAME | 32.4 | 23.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | -11.3 | +6.3 |
| SOS | +6.7 | -4.7 |
| POWER | -9.0 | +4.7 |
SOUTHERN BOONE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Southern Boone finished the job, as California and Southern Boone finished 20-41. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 23-31 final.
The actual margin was 21 points versus MOFO's 7.9-point projection. That produced a 13.1-point margin error, with score errors of 3.4 for California and 9.7 for Southern Boone.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SOUTHERN BOONE
MOFO leans toward Southern Boone because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 13.7-point power-rating advantage and projects a 7.9-point margin, with Southern Boone carrying a 74% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Southern Boone enters at 27.6 points per game compared with 25.6 for California. Southern Boone also allows 8.6 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -4.7 for Southern Boone and +6.7 for California. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Southern Boone owns the stronger scoring profile.
02California has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 13.7-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.