TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Rock Port | South Nodaway |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-0 | 2-1 |
| PF / GAME | 41.4 | 39.8 |
| PA / GAME | 26.0 | 34.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | +18.7 | +10.0 |
| SOS | -1.6 | -12.8 |
| POWER | +18.1 | +5.5 |
ROCK PORT WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Rock Port finished the job, as Rock Port and South Nodaway finished 54-18. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 40-31 final.
The actual margin was 36 points versus MOFO's 8.4-point projection. That produced a 27.6-point margin error, with score errors of 14.3 for Rock Port and 13.3 for South Nodaway.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD ROCK PORT
MOFO leans toward Rock Port because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 12.6-point power-rating advantage and projects a 8.4-point margin, with Rock Port carrying a 75% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Rock Port enters at 41.4 points per game compared with 39.8 for South Nodaway. Rock Port also allows 8.8 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -1.6 for Rock Port and -12.8 for South Nodaway. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Rock Port owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Rock Port has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 12.6-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.