TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Putnam County | South Harrison |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| PF / GAME | 21.0 | 22.6 |
| PA / GAME | 27.8 | 30.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | -9.0 | -10.0 |
| SOS | +7.8 | +3.5 |
| POWER | -6.3 | -8.8 |
PUTNAM COUNTY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Putnam County finished the job, as Putnam County and South Harrison finished 15-12. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 26-25 final.
The actual margin was 3 points versus MOFO's 1.0-point projection. That produced a 2.0-point margin error, with score errors of 10.8 for Putnam County and 12.8 for South Harrison.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD PUTNAM COUNTY
MOFO leans toward Putnam County because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 2.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 1.0-point margin, with Putnam County carrying a 53% win probability.
South Harrison actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Putnam County also allows 2.2 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +7.8 for Putnam County and +3.5 for South Harrison. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01South Harrison owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Putnam County has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 2.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.