TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Montgomery County | South Callaway |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| PF / GAME | 20.6 | 33.4 |
| PA / GAME | 29.6 | 22.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | -10.7 | +14.7 |
| SOS | -7.4 | -4.5 |
| POWER | -13.3 | +13.1 |
MONTGOMERY COUNTY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Montgomery County finished the job, as Montgomery County and South Callaway finished 8-6. MOFO's pick of South Callaway missed; the model had projected a 18-34 final.
The actual margin was 2 points versus MOFO's 16.1-point projection. That produced a 18.1-point margin error, with score errors of 10.3 for Montgomery County and 28.4 for South Callaway.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SOUTH CALLAWAY
MOFO leans toward South Callaway because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 26.3-point power-rating advantage and projects a 16.1-point margin, with South Callaway carrying a 90% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: South Callaway enters at 33.4 points per game compared with 20.6 for Montgomery County. South Callaway also allows 7.6 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -4.5 for South Callaway and -7.4 for Montgomery County. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01South Callaway owns the stronger scoring profile.
02South Callaway has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 26.3-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.