TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Santa Fe | Slater |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| PF / GAME | 39.4 | 25.8 |
| PA / GAME | 31.0 | 35.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | +8.0 | -16.3 |
| SOS | -3.4 | +8.0 |
| POWER | +6.8 | -13.5 |
SLATER WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Slater finished the job, as Santa Fe and Slater finished 52-66. MOFO's pick of Santa Fe missed; the model had projected a 40-26 final.
The actual margin was 14 points versus MOFO's 13.2-point projection. That produced a 27.2-point margin error, with score errors of 12.5 for Santa Fe and 39.7 for Slater.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SANTA FE
MOFO leans toward Santa Fe because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 20.3-point power-rating advantage and projects a 13.2-point margin, with Santa Fe carrying a 85% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Santa Fe enters at 39.4 points per game compared with 25.8 for Slater. Santa Fe also allows 4.6 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -3.4 for Santa Fe and +8.0 for Slater. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Santa Fe owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Slater has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 20.3-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.