TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Duchesne | Scotland County |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-2 | 2-1 |
| PF / GAME | 17.3 | 27.8 |
| PA / GAME | 34.9 | 25.2 |
| AVG MARGIN | -28.3 | +2.0 |
| SOS | -8.7 | -6.7 |
| POWER | -31.4 | -0.3 |
SCOTLAND COUNTY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Scotland County finished the job, as Duchesne and Scotland County finished 0-56. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 18-35 final.
The actual margin was 56 points versus MOFO's 17.4-point projection. That produced a 38.6-point margin error, with score errors of 17.6 for Duchesne and 21.0 for Scotland County.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SCOTLAND COUNTY
MOFO leans toward Scotland County because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 31.1-point power-rating advantage and projects a 17.4-point margin, with Scotland County carrying a 91% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Scotland County enters at 27.8 points per game compared with 17.3 for Duchesne. Scotland County also allows 9.7 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -6.7 for Scotland County and -8.7 for Duchesne. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Scotland County owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Scotland County has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 31.1-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.