TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Windsor (Imperial) | Saxony Lutheran |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| PF / GAME | 31.8 | 29.5 |
| PA / GAME | 33.6 | 29.5 |
| AVG MARGIN | -1.0 | -0.3 |
| SOS | -2.0 | -1.6 |
| POWER | -1.7 | -0.8 |
SAXONY LUTHERAN WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Saxony Lutheran finished the job, as Windsor (Imperial) and Saxony Lutheran finished 20-52. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 31-32 final.
The actual margin was 32 points versus MOFO's 1.1-point projection. That produced a 30.9-point margin error, with score errors of 10.5 for Windsor (Imperial) and 20.3 for Saxony Lutheran.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SAXONY LUTHERAN
MOFO leans toward Saxony Lutheran because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 0.9-point power-rating advantage and projects a 1.1-point margin, with Saxony Lutheran carrying a 54% win probability.
Windsor (Imperial) actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Saxony Lutheran also allows 4.1 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -1.6 for Saxony Lutheran and -2.0 for Windsor (Imperial). Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Windsor (Imperial) owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Saxony Lutheran has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 0.9-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.