TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Diamond | Sarcoxie |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-2 | 2-1 |
| PF / GAME | 16.6 | 27.8 |
| PA / GAME | 37.7 | 20.2 |
| AVG MARGIN | -32.8 | +11.7 |
| SOS | +10.1 | -12.9 |
| POWER | -29.2 | +7.2 |
SARCOXIE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Sarcoxie finished the job, as Diamond and Sarcoxie finished 13-56. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 15-36 final.
The actual margin was 43 points versus MOFO's 21.5-point projection. That produced a 21.5-point margin error, with score errors of 1.8 for Diamond and 19.7 for Sarcoxie.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SARCOXIE
MOFO leans toward Sarcoxie because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 36.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 21.5-point margin, with Sarcoxie carrying a 95% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Sarcoxie enters at 27.8 points per game compared with 16.6 for Diamond. Sarcoxie also allows 17.5 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -12.9 for Sarcoxie and +10.1 for Diamond. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Sarcoxie owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Diamond has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 36.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.