TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Eureka | Rockwood Summit |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| PF / GAME | 34.4 | 32.6 |
| PA / GAME | 29.2 | 26.2 |
| AVG MARGIN | +8.7 | +1.3 |
| SOS | +2.8 | +6.3 |
| POWER | +9.6 | +3.5 |
EUREKA WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Eureka finished the job, as Eureka and Rockwood Summit finished 22-7. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 31-30 final.
The actual margin was 15 points versus MOFO's 0.9-point projection. That produced a 14.1-point margin error, with score errors of 9.0 for Eureka and 23.1 for Rockwood Summit.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD EUREKA
MOFO leans toward Eureka because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 6.1-point power-rating advantage and projects a 0.9-point margin, with Eureka carrying a 53% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Eureka enters at 34.4 points per game compared with 32.6 for Rockwood Summit. Rockwood Summit's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +2.8 for Eureka and +6.3 for Rockwood Summit. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Eureka owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Rockwood Summit has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 6.1-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.