TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Capital City | Rock Bridge |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| PF / GAME | 22.8 | 28.4 |
| PA / GAME | 23.0 | 24.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | -0.3 | +6.7 |
| SOS | +3.4 | -8.6 |
| POWER | +0.8 | +3.6 |
ROCK BRIDGE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Rock Bridge finished the job, as Capital City and Rock Bridge finished 28-63. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 23-26 final.
The actual margin was 35 points versus MOFO's 2.3-point projection. That produced a 32.7-point margin error, with score errors of 4.5 for Capital City and 37.2 for Rock Bridge.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD ROCK BRIDGE
MOFO leans toward Rock Bridge because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 2.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 2.3-point margin, with Rock Bridge carrying a 58% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Rock Bridge enters at 28.4 points per game compared with 22.8 for Capital City. Capital City's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -8.6 for Rock Bridge and +3.4 for Capital City. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Rock Bridge owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Capital City has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 2.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.