TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Jasper | Rich Hill |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| PF / GAME | 15.0 | 13.8 |
| PA / GAME | 39.8 | 27.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | -28.7 | -21.7 |
| SOS | +8.7 | +14.1 |
| POWER | -25.6 | -16.7 |
RICH HILL WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Rich Hill finished the job, as Jasper and Rich Hill finished 2-28. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 20-28 final.
The actual margin was 26 points versus MOFO's 7.7-point projection. That produced a 18.3-point margin error, with score errors of 18.1 for Jasper and 0.2 for Rich Hill.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD RICH HILL
MOFO leans toward Rich Hill because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 8.9-point power-rating advantage and projects a 7.7-point margin, with Rich Hill carrying a 74% win probability.
Jasper actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Rich Hill also allows 12.4 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +14.1 for Rich Hill and +8.7 for Jasper. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Jasper owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Rich Hill has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 8.9-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.