TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Ozark | Republic |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| PF / GAME | 28.8 | 30.0 |
| PA / GAME | 27.4 | 22.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | +2.0 | +11.7 |
| SOS | +7.7 | -6.2 |
| POWER | +4.7 | +9.5 |
REPUBLIC WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Republic finished the job, as Ozark and Republic finished 0-49. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 25-29 final.
The actual margin was 49 points versus MOFO's 3.5-point projection. That produced a 45.5-point margin error, with score errors of 25.5 for Ozark and 20.0 for Republic.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD REPUBLIC
MOFO leans toward Republic because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 4.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 3.5-point margin, with Republic carrying a 61% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Republic enters at 30.0 points per game compared with 28.8 for Ozark. Republic also allows 4.6 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -6.2 for Republic and +7.7 for Ozark. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Republic owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Ozark has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 4.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.