TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Strafford | Reeds Spring |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| PF / GAME | 22.0 | 13.6 |
| PA / GAME | 24.8 | 30.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | -4.0 | -23.0 |
| SOS | +3.1 | -0.5 |
| POWER | -2.9 | -23.2 |
STRAFFORD WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Strafford finished the job, as Strafford and Reeds Spring finished 49-22. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 29-17 final.
The actual margin was 27 points versus MOFO's 11.7-point projection. That produced a 15.3-point margin error, with score errors of 20.4 for Strafford and 5.1 for Reeds Spring.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD STRAFFORD
MOFO leans toward Strafford because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 20.3-point power-rating advantage and projects a 11.7-point margin, with Strafford carrying a 83% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Strafford enters at 22.0 points per game compared with 13.6 for Reeds Spring. Strafford also allows 5.8 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +3.1 for Strafford and -0.5 for Reeds Spring. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Strafford owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Strafford has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 20.3-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.