TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Lutheran South | Priory |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| PF / GAME | 31.8 | 21.6 |
| PA / GAME | 38.0 | 44.2 |
| AVG MARGIN | -6.0 | -18.7 |
| SOS | -4.8 | +2.9 |
| POWER | -7.7 | -17.7 |
PRIORY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Priory finished the job, as Lutheran South and Priory finished 13-36. MOFO's pick of Lutheran South missed; the model had projected a 39-29 final.
The actual margin was 23 points versus MOFO's 10.1-point projection. That produced a 33.1-point margin error, with score errors of 25.9 for Lutheran South and 7.2 for Priory.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD LUTHERAN SOUTH
MOFO leans toward Lutheran South because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 10.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 10.1-point margin, with Lutheran South carrying a 79% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Lutheran South enters at 31.8 points per game compared with 21.6 for Priory. Lutheran South also allows 6.2 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -4.8 for Lutheran South and +2.9 for Priory. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Lutheran South owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Priory has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 10.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.