TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Northland Christian | Polo |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| PF / GAME | 26.7 | 33.5 |
| PA / GAME | 35.4 | 36.1 |
| AVG MARGIN | -14.5 | -3.9 |
| SOS | +2.7 | -5.8 |
| POWER | -13.6 | -5.9 |
POLO WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Polo finished the job, as Northland Christian and Polo finished 34-42. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 31-35 final.
The actual margin was 8 points versus MOFO's 4.4-point projection. That produced a 3.6-point margin error, with score errors of 3.3 for Northland Christian and 6.9 for Polo.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD POLO
MOFO leans toward Polo because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 7.6-point power-rating advantage and projects a 4.4-point margin, with Polo carrying a 64% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Polo enters at 33.5 points per game compared with 26.7 for Northland Christian. Northland Christian's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -5.8 for Polo and +2.7 for Northland Christian. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Polo owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Northland Christian has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 7.6-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.