TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Oak Grove | Pleasant Hill |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| PF / GAME | 27.6 | 24.4 |
| PA / GAME | 23.0 | 31.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | +2.3 | -10.0 |
| SOS | -5.0 | +10.9 |
| POWER | +0.6 | -6.2 |
PLEASANT HILL WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Pleasant Hill finished the job, as Oak Grove and Pleasant Hill finished 0-20. MOFO's pick of Oak Grove missed; the model had projected a 30-23 final.
The actual margin was 20 points versus MOFO's 6.5-point projection. That produced a 26.5-point margin error, with score errors of 29.7 for Oak Grove and 3.2 for Pleasant Hill.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD OAK GROVE
MOFO leans toward Oak Grove because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 6.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 6.5-point margin, with Oak Grove carrying a 70% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Oak Grove enters at 27.6 points per game compared with 24.4 for Pleasant Hill. Oak Grove also allows 8.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -5.0 for Oak Grove and +10.9 for Pleasant Hill. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Oak Grove owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Pleasant Hill has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 6.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.