TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Skyline | Pierce City |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-0 | 2-1 |
| PF / GAME | 35.2 | 31.2 |
| PA / GAME | 16.4 | 21.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | +30.7 | +14.3 |
| SOS | +0.8 | +10.6 |
| POWER | +30.9 | +18.0 |
PIERCE CITY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Pierce City finished the job, as Skyline and Pierce City finished 22-26. MOFO's pick of Skyline missed; the model had projected a 30-23 final.
The actual margin was 4 points versus MOFO's 7.1-point projection. That produced a 11.1-point margin error, with score errors of 7.6 for Skyline and 3.5 for Pierce City.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SKYLINE
MOFO leans toward Skyline because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 12.9-point power-rating advantage and projects a 7.1-point margin, with Skyline carrying a 72% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Skyline enters at 35.2 points per game compared with 31.2 for Pierce City. Skyline also allows 5.2 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +0.8 for Skyline and +10.6 for Pierce City. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Skyline owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Pierce City has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 12.9-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.