TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Webster Groves | Parkway South |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-0 | 2-1 |
| PF / GAME | 28.5 | 33.6 |
| PA / GAME | 20.7 | 26.2 |
| AVG MARGIN | +17.2 | +8.0 |
| SOS | -17.2 | -12.5 |
| POWER | +11.2 | +3.6 |
PARKWAY SOUTH WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Parkway South finished the job, as Webster Groves and Parkway South finished 0-41. MOFO's pick of Webster Groves missed; the model had projected a 28-26 final.
The actual margin was 41 points versus MOFO's 1.8-point projection. That produced a 42.8-point margin error, with score errors of 28.2 for Webster Groves and 14.7 for Parkway South.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD WEBSTER GROVES
MOFO leans toward Webster Groves because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 7.6-point power-rating advantage and projects a 1.8-point margin, with Webster Groves carrying a 56% win probability.
Parkway South actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Webster Groves also allows 5.5 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -17.2 for Webster Groves and -12.5 for Parkway South. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Parkway South owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Parkway South has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 7.6-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.