TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Union | Pacific |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-1 | 0-3 |
| PF / GAME | 29.6 | 23.4 |
| PA / GAME | 21.2 | 34.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | +11.7 | -18.7 |
| SOS | -15.4 | +9.2 |
| POWER | +6.3 | -15.4 |
UNION WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Union finished the job, as Union and Pacific finished 56-20. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 34-20 final.
The actual margin was 36 points versus MOFO's 13.7-point projection. That produced a 22.3-point margin error, with score errors of 22.0 for Union and 0.3 for Pacific.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD UNION
MOFO leans toward Union because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 21.7-point power-rating advantage and projects a 13.7-point margin, with Union carrying a 86% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Union enters at 29.6 points per game compared with 23.4 for Pacific. Union also allows 13.4 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -15.4 for Union and +9.2 for Pacific. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Union owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Pacific has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 21.7-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.