TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Sullivan | Owensville |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-1 | 0-3 |
| PF / GAME | 29.2 | 16.8 |
| PA / GAME | 26.0 | 33.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | +10.0 | -23.0 |
| SOS | +3.2 | +8.7 |
| POWER | +11.1 | -19.9 |
SULLIVAN WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Sullivan finished the job, as Sullivan and Owensville finished 60-6. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 35-18 final.
The actual margin was 54 points versus MOFO's 16.5-point projection. That produced a 37.5-point margin error, with score errors of 25.4 for Sullivan and 12.1 for Owensville.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SULLIVAN
MOFO leans toward Sullivan because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 31.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 16.5-point margin, with Sullivan carrying a 90% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Sullivan enters at 29.2 points per game compared with 16.8 for Owensville. Sullivan also allows 7.4 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +3.2 for Sullivan and +8.7 for Owensville. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Sullivan owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Owensville has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 31.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.