TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Liberal | Osceola |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| PF / GAME | 27.8 | 23.0 |
| PA / GAME | 35.4 | 44.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | -11.0 | -20.0 |
| SOS | -2.5 | +4.3 |
| POWER | -11.9 | -18.5 |
LIBERAL WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Liberal finished the job, as Liberal and Osceola finished 54-18. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 37-29 final.
The actual margin was 36 points versus MOFO's 8.1-point projection. That produced a 27.9-point margin error, with score errors of 17.3 for Liberal and 10.6 for Osceola.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD LIBERAL
MOFO leans toward Liberal because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 6.6-point power-rating advantage and projects a 8.1-point margin, with Liberal carrying a 75% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Liberal enters at 27.8 points per game compared with 23.0 for Osceola. Liberal also allows 9.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -2.5 for Liberal and +4.3 for Osceola. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Liberal owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Osceola has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 6.6-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.