TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Lathrop | North Platte |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-0 | 1-2 |
| PF / GAME | 33.6 | 24.0 |
| PA / GAME | 13.6 | 25.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | +22.7 | -1.7 |
| SOS | -6.5 | -2.9 |
| POWER | +20.4 | -2.7 |
LATHROP WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Lathrop finished the job, as Lathrop and North Platte finished 30-28. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 32-16 final.
The actual margin was 2 points versus MOFO's 15.4-point projection. That produced a 13.4-point margin error, with score errors of 1.7 for Lathrop and 11.7 for North Platte.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD LATHROP
MOFO leans toward Lathrop because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 23.1-point power-rating advantage and projects a 15.4-point margin, with Lathrop carrying a 89% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Lathrop enters at 33.6 points per game compared with 24.0 for North Platte. Lathrop also allows 11.4 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -6.5 for Lathrop and -2.9 for North Platte. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Lathrop owns the stronger scoring profile.
02North Platte has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 23.1-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.