TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Bowling Green | North Callaway |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| PF / GAME | 35.2 | 35.8 |
| PA / GAME | 28.2 | 22.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | +11.7 | +18.0 |
| SOS | -5.4 | +4.0 |
| POWER | +9.8 | +19.4 |
NORTH CALLAWAY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
North Callaway finished the job, as Bowling Green and North Callaway finished 54-76. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 28-33 final.
The actual margin was 22 points versus MOFO's 5.7-point projection. That produced a 16.3-point margin error, with score errors of 26.5 for Bowling Green and 42.8 for North Callaway.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD NORTH CALLAWAY
MOFO leans toward North Callaway because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 9.6-point power-rating advantage and projects a 5.7-point margin, with North Callaway carrying a 68% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: North Callaway enters at 35.8 points per game compared with 35.2 for Bowling Green. North Callaway also allows 5.8 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +4.0 for North Callaway and -5.4 for Bowling Green. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01North Callaway owns the stronger scoring profile.
02North Callaway has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 9.6-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.