TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Lebanon | Neosho |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-2 | 3-0 |
| PF / GAME | 20.2 | 37.6 |
| PA / GAME | 34.2 | 22.2 |
| AVG MARGIN | -22.7 | +25.7 |
| SOS | +6.2 | -7.7 |
| POWER | -20.5 | +23.0 |
NEOSHO WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Neosho finished the job, as Lebanon and Neosho finished 8-50. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 17-40 final.
The actual margin was 42 points versus MOFO's 23.8-point projection. That produced a 18.2-point margin error, with score errors of 8.6 for Lebanon and 9.6 for Neosho.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD NEOSHO
MOFO leans toward Neosho because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 43.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 23.8-point margin, with Neosho carrying a 95% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Neosho enters at 37.6 points per game compared with 20.2 for Lebanon. Neosho also allows 12.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -7.7 for Neosho and +6.2 for Lebanon. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Neosho owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Lebanon has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 43.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.