TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Warrensburg | Moberly |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-0 | 3-0 |
| PF / GAME | 30.2 | 34.2 |
| PA / GAME | 22.4 | 15.2 |
| AVG MARGIN | +13.0 | +29.7 |
| SOS | -10.9 | -15.6 |
| POWER | +9.2 | +24.2 |
MOBERLY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Moberly finished the job, as Warrensburg and Moberly finished 22-24. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 21-30 final.
The actual margin was 2 points versus MOFO's 8.7-point projection. That produced a 6.7-point margin error, with score errors of 0.9 for Warrensburg and 5.8 for Moberly.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD MOBERLY
MOFO leans toward Moberly because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 15.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 8.7-point margin, with Moberly carrying a 76% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Moberly enters at 34.2 points per game compared with 30.2 for Warrensburg. Moberly also allows 7.2 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -15.6 for Moberly and -10.9 for Warrensburg. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Moberly owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Warrensburg has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 15.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.